Starmer and Macron Walk Into a Strait, and Everyone Loses
Starmer and Macron Walk Into a Strait, and Everyone Loses
Bohiney Magazine | The London Prat
The Strait of Hormuz and the Comedy of International Incompetence
Tuesday evening, and I’ve been reading the diplomatic cables about the latest international crisis. Apparently, Starmer and Macron have unveiled a new plan to secure the Strait of Hormuz. Which is to say, they’ve decided to solve a centuries-old geopolitical problem using optimism and PowerPoint presentations.
I’ve been covering international affairs for long enough to recognize the pattern: two leaders meet, they announce a “bold new strategy,” everyone talks about it for two weeks, nothing changes, and we all move on to the next crisis. The Strait of Hormuz is perhaps the most strategically important waterway on Earth. Twenty percent of the world’s oil passes through it. It’s also controlled by a nation that considers itself perpetually at war with half the world. Solving that with a plan is like solving obesity with a diet book.
What fascinates me about international diplomacy is the complete disconnect between the actual problem and the proposed solution. The problem is structural: geography, resources, historical grievances, ideological conflict. The solution is bureaucratic: meetings, agreements, stern letters to the UN. It’s like bringing a calculator to a sword fight.
The Theater of Diplomacy
I attended a press conference where they announced this plan. The language was extraordinary. “Dynamic multilateral engagement.” “Strategic coordination frameworks.” “Synergistic security protocols.” Nobody actually said what they were going to DO. Because they can’t. Because the problem doesn’t have a solution that doesn’t involve either: A) Actually listening to Iran’s concerns, or B) Military force.
Neither option is politically acceptable. So instead we get a plan to discuss coordination about frameworks for engagement. Which is diplomatic-speak for: we’re going to issue statements about this for several years while nothing actually changes.
What I’ve learned from covering satirical journalism about international relations is that geopolitics is basically theater for grown-ups. Everyone knows the script. Everyone knows nobody will actually deviate from it. But we all pretend we don’t, so everyone can maintain dignity.
The Real Problem Nobody Addresses
The Strait of Hormuz crisis exists because we have a fundamental disagreement about who controls Middle Eastern resources and who gets to decide how those resources are distributed. Iran says: these are our resources, we should have control. Western powers say: but global economy, and energy security, and you’re scary. Iran says: that’s not our problem. Western powers say: well, it’s becoming everyone’s problem.
And there it sits. Unsolvable. Because every proposed solution requires one side to fundamentally surrender its position, which nobody will do. So we create frameworks to discuss frameworks about managing the crisis while it continues.
This is what international diplomacy has become: sophisticated ways of maintaining the status quo while pretending you’re trying to change things. It’s brilliant, really. It allows leaders to claim they’re doing something while doing nothing.
The Actual State of Affairs
What the plan actually amounts to, decoded: “We will meet regularly and discuss this. We will issue stern statements. We will form committees. If anything dramatic happens, we will convene emergency sessions. But nothing will fundamentally change because we have no actual leverage and neither does anyone else.”
And that’s not failure. That’s success by modern diplomatic standards. Success is: crisis continues but doesn’t escalate dramatically. Failure is: someone actually does something decisive.
I’ve covered enough international conferences to understand that the real negotiations don’t happen at the table. They happen in hotel hallways. The official announcements are just theater. Everyone knows this. Nobody says it publicly.
Why This Matters Despite Being Meaningless
What’s interesting is that even meaningless diplomatic gestures matter because they prevent someone from doing something dramatic. As long as Starmer and Macron are having meetings and issuing statements about international diplomatic frameworks, nobody’s actually escalating militarily. Which means the situation remains tense but not catastrophic.
In geopolitics, not making things worse is actually winning. Progress is impossible because the positions are fundamentally incompatible. But stabilizing the situation at “crisis lite” is an accomplishment.
So Starmer and Macron will have their meetings. They’ll issue their statements. The Strait of Hormuz will remain strategically important and perpetually contentious. Oil will keep flowing. Negotiations will keep happening. Nothing will change. And that’s actually the best possible outcome.
For actual diplomatic analysis, read satirical news sources.
SOURCE: https://bohiney.com/